UPDATE: Democrats Challenge Mayor's Crime Claims

Democrats are disputing claims by Republican Mayor Sebastian N. Giuliano  that major crimes dropped by 23 percent in the city in the first quarter of 2011, saying the data the mayor used came from too narrow a sampling and don't accurately reflect what's happening with crime here.

Ellen Hart, the deputy campaign manager for Democratic mayoral hopeful Dan Drew, says Giuliano is “massaging” the crime numbers prior to the Nov. 8 election. The mayor used data from the first quarter of 2010 and compared it to data from the first quarter of 2011 to make his claim that serious crime here has dropped.

The figures the mayor released showed that in the first quarter of 2011, there was one rape, eight robberies, three aggravated assaults, 25 burglaries, 130 larcenies, nine motor vehicle thefts and zero arsons. The same time period in 2010 revealed one rape, nine robberies, 10 aggravated assaults, 29 burglaries, 172 larcenies, eight motor vehicle thefts and one arson.

The same statistics Hart said Giuliano is using to claim crime went down can be used to claim it went up dramatically. For example, she said, Middletown had zero arsons in the first quarter of 2010 and one in the first quarter of 2011.

“Using Giuliano’s method of calculating crime statistics, you could say arson activity increased 100 percent in Middletown from 2010 to 2011,” Hart said.

And state Rep. Matthew Lesser (D-Middlefield, Durham, Middletown), who is overseeing the campaign of Dan Drew, Giuliano's challenger, also strongly contested the mayor’s assertion that crime has dropped in the city.

Lesser said a deeper look at crime statistics paints a completely different picture than the one the mayor is painting.

“The trend from 2004 to 2009 shows an increase in crime in Middletown,” Lesser said. “The preliminary numbers for 2010 do show a slight dip overall, but that's because of a drop in the number of larcenies and motor vehicle thefts, the least serious crimes and the least likely to be reported. Violent crimes … continue to rise under the mayor's watch.”

McMahon called Lesser's five-year evaluation “a political stunt,” adding, “I’m sorry he did that.”

“We’re comparing one slice of the pie to another — three months in 2011 to three months in 2010; apples to apples. Violent crimes are down in those comparative quarters,” McMahon stresses.

Former State Republican Chairman Chris Healy, the mayor's campaign manager, questioned Lesser’s analysis.

“These numbers are released by the Department of Public Safety and Rep. Lesser is no police officer, nor is he qualified in any capacity to reinvent [or] reinterpret cold, hard facts.”

Hart says Giuliano is basing his claim largely on the dip in larcenies in the first three months of 2011, which she said is a very narrow measurement.

“If I kept raising people’s taxes, I’d be spinning the crime stats, too,” said Hart. “Seb is desperate to talk about anything but his tax-and-spend record.”

Healy maintained that the city has less crime now.

“The fact is Middletown is safer and has been safer since Seb Giuliano has become mayor,” Healy says. “These numbers don’t lie. You can walk in downtown Middletown — any part of the city — and it’s safe.”

A drop in crime, Giuliano said, could translate into an economic recovery.

"We look at the issues of public safety and economic development globally," Giulino said. "They go hand in hand. You cannot expand our tax base as we have done without proof that the businesses, customers and citizens are also safe."

From the numbers released today by Giuliano, (see attached pdf), the most significant first-quarter decline was in larcenies, with 42 fewer larcenies in January through March of 2011. Murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny and motor vehicle theft are considered major crimes.

Lesser said there are problems in using such preliminary data. His understanding from the Crime Analysis Unit of the Connecticut State Police is “early numbers are often revised upward because of tardy reporting.”

Acting Chief of Police Patrick T. McMahon, however, agreed with Giuliano's interpretation of the statistical data. "I do believe that the reduction goes to the heart of police and community working hand in hand."

"These are the numbers that are provided to the State of Connecticut [Department of Public Safety] every quarter. We had a pretty uneventful summer — there certainly hasn’t been a rash of violent crime in Middletown," McMahon explained.

"These are the crimes that are reported to the [Federal Bureau of Investigation]. When you look at one year — the winter of 2011 compared to the winter of 2010 — [violent crime is down]. We continue our community policing philosophy, we continue the programs we have, also it follows the national trend," McMahon said.

Statistics were measured in January through March of 2010 and January through March of 2011. Total crimes in that quarter of 2011 were 176, compared to 229 in 2010.

The most recent crime statistics available from the state police are from 2009. Those were compiled in November of 2010.

Lesser provided the following crime statistics from Middletown to dispute the mayor's claims:

2004

Murders: 1
Rapes: 0
Robbery: 22
Aggravated Assault: 22
Burglary: 129
Larceny: 1,046
Motor Vehicle Theft: 118

Crime Index Total: 1,338

2009
Murders: 1
Rapes: 0
Robbery: 31
Aggravated Assault: 27
Burglary: 213
Larceny: 1,205
Motor Vehicle Theft: 92

Crime Index Total: 1,569

2010 (most recent year data available, but preliminary and likely to change)
Murders: 0
Rapes: 4
Robbery: 20
Aggravated Assault: 35
Burglary 157
Larceny 923
Motor Vehicle Theft: 59
Arson: 3

Crime Index Total 1,198

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